Bonds vs Stocks: Why Bonds Are Leading | Morgan Stanley

Bonds vs Stocks: Why Bonds Are Leading | Morgan Stanley Investor Relations Media Relations Client Login Client Login Morgan Stanley Online Morgan Stanley at Work Research Portal Matrix

Morgan Stanley Online

Morgan Stanley at Work

Research Portal

Matrix

Our Insights Our Insights Personal Finance Market Trends Technology & Disruption Sustainability Diversity & Inclusion STAY UP TO DATE Sign Up For Our Newsletter Listen To Our Podcasts

At Morgan Stanley, we lead with exceptional ideas. Across all our businesses, we offer keen insight on today's most critical issues.

Personal Finance

Learn from our industry leaders about how to manage your wealth and help meet your personal financial goals.

At Morgan Stanley, we lead with exceptional ideas. Across all our businesses, we offer keen insight on today's most critical issues.

Market Trends

From volatility and geopolitics to economic trends and investment outlooks, stay informed on the key developments shaping today's markets.

At Morgan Stanley, we lead with exceptional ideas. Across all our businesses, we offer keen insight on today's most critical issues.

Technology & Disruption

Whether it’s hardware, software or age-old businesses, everything today is ripe for disruption. Stay abreast of the latest trends and developments.

At Morgan Stanley, we lead with exceptional ideas. Across all our businesses, we offer keen insight on today's most critical issues.

Sustainability

Our insightful research, advisory and investing capabilities give us unique and broad perspective on sustainability topics.

At Morgan Stanley, we lead with exceptional ideas. Across all our businesses, we offer keen insight on today's most critical issues.

Diversity & Inclusion

Multicultural and women entrepreneurs are the cutting-edge leaders of businesses that power markets. Hear their stories and learn about how they are redefining the terms of success.

Featured 2026 Outlooks Insights Hard Lessons Insights Thoughts on the Market Insights What We Do What We Do Wealth Management Investment Banking & Capital Markets Sales & Trading Research Investment Management Morgan Stanley at Work Sustainable Investing Inclusive & Sustainable Ventures

Morgan Stanley helps people, institutions and governments raise, manage and distribute the capital they need to achieve their goals.

Wealth Management

We help people, businesses and institutions build, preserve and manage wealth so they can pursue their financial goals.

Morgan Stanley helps people, institutions and governments raise, manage and distribute the capital they need to achieve their goals.

Investment Banking & Capital Markets

We have global expertise in market analysis and in advisory and capital-raising services for corporations, institutions and governments.

Morgan Stanley helps people, institutions and governments raise, manage and distribute the capital they need to achieve their goals.

Sales & Trading

Global institutions, leading hedge funds and industry innovators turn to Morgan Stanley for sales, trading and market-making services.

Morgan Stanley helps people, institutions and governments raise, manage and distribute the capital they need to achieve their goals.

Research

We offer timely, integrated analysis of companies, sectors, markets and economies, helping clients with their most critical decisions.

Morgan Stanley helps people, institutions and governments raise, manage and distribute the capital they need to achieve their goals.

Investment Management

We deliver active investment strategies across public and private markets and custom solutions to institutional and individual investors.

Morgan Stanley helps people, institutions and governments raise, manage and distribute the capital they need to achieve their goals.

Morgan Stanley at Work

We provide comprehensive workplace financial solutions for organizations and their employees, combining personalized advice with modern technology.

Morgan Stanley helps people, institutions and governments raise, manage and distribute the capital they need to achieve their goals.

Sustainable Investing

We offer scalable investment products, foster innovative solutions and provide actionable insights across sustainability issues.

Morgan Stanley helps people, institutions and governments raise, manage and distribute the capital they need to achieve their goals.

Inclusive & Sustainable Ventures

From our startup lab to our cutting-edge research, we broaden access to capital for entrepreneurs and spotlight their success.

Featured Get Matched with a Financial Advisor Wealth Management Explore What We Offer E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley Watch Our Client Success Stories The Morgan Stanley Blueprint About Us About Us Core Values Leadership History Locations Diversity Sustainability Giving Back Technology Sponsorships

Since our founding in 1935, Morgan Stanley has consistently delivered first-class business in a first-class way. Underpinning all that we do are five core values.

Core Values

Everything we do at Morgan Stanley is guided by our five core values: Do the right thing, put clients first, lead with exceptional ideas, commit to diversity and inclusion, and give back.

Since our founding in 1935, Morgan Stanley has consistently delivered first-class business in a first-class way. Underpinning all that we do are five core values.

Leadership

Morgan Stanley leadership is dedicated to conducting first-class business in a first-class way. Our board of directors and senior executives hold the belief that capital can and should benefit all of society.

Since our founding in 1935, Morgan Stanley has consistently delivered first-class business in a first-class way. Underpinning all that we do are five core values.

History

From our origins as a small Wall Street partnership to becoming a global firm of more than 80,000 employees today, Morgan Stanley has been committed to clients and communities for 90 years.

Since our founding in 1935, Morgan Stanley has consistently delivered first-class business in a first-class way. Underpinning all that we do are five core values.

Locations

The global presence that Morgan Stanley maintains is key to our clients' success, giving us keen insight across regions and markets, and allowing us to make a difference around the world.

Since our founding in 1935, Morgan Stanley has consistently delivered first-class business in a first-class way. Underpinning all that we do are five core values.

Diversity

Morgan Stanley is differentiated by the caliber of our diverse team. Our culture of access and inclusion has built our legacy and shapes our future, helping to strengthen our business and bring value to clients.

Since our founding in 1935, Morgan Stanley has consistently delivered first-class business in a first-class way. Underpinning all that we do are five core values.

Sustainability

Our firm's commitment to sustainability informs our operations, governance, risk management, diversity efforts, philanthropy and research.

Since our founding in 1935, Morgan Stanley has consistently delivered first-class business in a first-class way. Underpinning all that we do are five core values.

Giving Back

At Morgan Stanley, giving back is a core value—a central part of our culture globally. We live that commitment through long-lasting partnerships, community-based delivery and engaging our best asset—Morgan Stanley employees.

Since our founding in 1935, Morgan Stanley has consistently delivered first-class business in a first-class way. Underpinning all that we do are five core values.

Technology

As a global financial services firm, Morgan Stanley is committed to technological innovation. We rely on our technologists around the world to create leading-edge, secure platforms for all our businesses.

Since our founding in 1935, Morgan Stanley has consistently delivered first-class business in a first-class way. Underpinning all that we do are five core values.

Sponsorships

At Morgan Stanley, we believe creating a more equitable society begins with investing in access, knowledge and resources to foster potential for all. We are committed to supporting the next generation of leaders and ensuring that they reflect the diversity of the world they inherit.

Careers Careers Students & Graduates Opportunities Experienced Professionals Opportunities Technology Professionals Experienced Financial Advisors

We believe our greatest asset is our people. We value our commitment to diverse perspectives and a culture of inclusion across the firm. Discover who we are and the right opportunity for you.

Students & Graduates

A career at Morgan Stanley means belonging to an ideas-driven culture that embraces new perspectives to solve complex problems. See how you can make meaningful contributions as a student or recent graduate at Morgan Stanley.

We believe our greatest asset is our people. We value our commitment to diverse perspectives and a culture of inclusion across the firm. Discover who we are and the right opportunity for you.

Experienced Professionals

At Morgan Stanley, you’ll find trusted colleagues, committed mentors and a culture that values diverse perspectives, individual intellect and cross-collaboration. See how you can continue your career journey at Morgan Stanley.

We believe our greatest asset is our people. We value our commitment to diverse perspectives and a culture of inclusion across the firm. Discover who we are and the right opportunity for you.

Experienced Financial Advisors

At Morgan Stanley, our premier brand, robust resources and market leadership can offer you a new opportunity to grow your practice and continue to fulfill on your commitment to deliver tailored wealth management advice that helps your clients reach their financial goals.

Featured Explore Our Culture Careers Yes, You Can Be a Tech Innovator at Morgan Stanley Technology CLEAR Wealth Management Why Bonds May Keep Beating Stocks Jun 25, 2025

Consider three reasons to continue favoring fixed income as bonds may keep outperforming.

Author Lisa Shalett Key Takeaways Current bond yields are strongly superior to pricing for the S&P 500 Index, with equity risk premiums at 20-year lows. A favorable policy environment, including eventual Fed rate cuts and bank deregulation, may support continued strength in fixed income. Despite fears to the contrary, bonds with short and intermediate durations still offer diversification potential in stock-bond portfolios. Consider maintaining above-normal exposure to investment-grade and municipal bonds with short to neutral durations, while adding international equities, commodities and energy infrastructure. While many investors focus on the U.S. stock market’s resilience, Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee believes the real story is that, year to date, bonds are outperforming stocks.

 

Indeed, while the S&P 500 was up 1.5% year-to-date as of Friday, U.S. Treasuries, investment-grade bonds and high-yield bonds posted superior total returns of 2.8%, 2.9% and 3.4%, respectively. (“Total returns” for bonds encompass both interest payments and any capital gains or losses.)

 

The bond market’s outperformance is surprising – and not just because historically, stocks have generally provided higher returns, with higher volatility, over the long term. The fixed income market has also been resilient in the face of significant challenges lately, ranging from investors’ disappointment about the Federal Reserve’s pause in interest rate cuts, to concerns about inflation and the swelling U.S. debt load, both of which risk higher yields and lower bond prices. And importantly, bonds look poised to continue outperforming. 

 

Here are three reasons we favor fixed income in 2025, particularly in short and intermediate durations. 

Wealth Management Hold On Loosely

Did you know bonds are outperforming stocks so far this year? Here’s why we think fixed income’s relative strength could continue.

Share 1 Superior yields First, bonds are currently priced to provide positive after-inflation returns, with yields averaging at least 4% on U.S. Treasuries, about 5% on investment-grade corporates and more than 7% on high-yield bonds. These yields are strongly superior to how the S&P 500 index is priced. “Equity risk premiums” (i.e., the additional returns investors may expect for investing in stocks instead of bonds) remain at 20-year lows, hovering around zero – a level that is hard to believe given mounting risks from domestic policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, which now include conflict between Iran and the U.S. and Israel.

2 A favorable policy backdrop Changing monetary policy and deregulation could also benefit bonds with short and intermediate maturities.

 

For one, eventual Fed rate cuts may drive yields lower and thus support higher bond prices. That said, the yield curve currently is not “aggressively priced,” meaning the market’s expectations for future rate changes appear relatively moderate, with any rate declines appearing more likely in shorter-duration bonds.

 

On the deregulation front, U.S. federal regulators may loosen bank capital requirements. This could allow banks to increase their Treasury holdings, potentially supporting bond prices, at a time when the U.S. government is likely to issue more Treasury securities to support government spending when Congress likely raises the debt ceiling this summer. More than one-third of this new government debt is expected in shorter-term maturities.

 

Also, new federal legislation to establish clearer rules around “stablecoins” could spur activity for these popular cryptocurrencies. Since stablecoins are frequently backed by U.S. hard currency collateral, this activity could, in turn, drive demand for short-duration Treasuries that are considered cash-equivalent securities. 

3 Diversification potential Finally, investor concerns about bonds’ loss of diversification potential may be overblown. While equity-return correlations are strongly positive – and rising – with 30-year bonds, our analysis shows that two-year bonds remain strongly negatively correlated to equities – meaning they typically rise when stocks fall, and vice versa, potentially offsetting losses in a portfolio.

 

The takeaway: Bonds’ potential diversification benefits are only a constraint for longer-duration bonds. Maintaining above-normal exposure to shorter-duration bonds, as we recommend, should still provide volatility buffers.

How to Invest Overall, now is not the time to abandon your fixed income allocations.

 

Consider maintaining additional exposure to investment-grade and municipal bonds with short to neutral durations, and position your portfolio for a backdrop of average 5%-10% U.S. equity returns, in an environment of more volatility, higher real rates and a weaker U.S. dollar.

 

Also consider adding diversifying positions in international equities, commodities, energy infrastructure and hedge funds.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from June 23, 2025, “Hold On Loosely.” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report. 

Find a Financial Advisor, Branch and Private Wealth Advisor near you. Check the background of Our Firm and Investment Professionals on FINRA's Broker/Check.

Enter zipcode Enter Zip Code Go

*Invalid zipcode

Wealth Management Four Risks Investors Shouldn’t Ignore The U.S. stock market’s recent resilience defies a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. Is the optimism sustainable? Wealth Management New Bull Market Is on Shaky Ground Investors are turning a blind eye to risks that could derail the bull market. Here’s why more caution is warranted. Wealth Management Three Warning Signs from Bond Markets Optimistic stock investors may be ignoring cautionary bond-market signals at their own peril. See what could weigh on asset prices. Wealth Management DIY Investors: Why Choose a Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor Why DIY investors have confidence in the investing decisions they make together with a Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor. Get the facts. Wealth Management Four Risks Investors Shouldn’t Ignore Wealth Management New Bull Market Is on Shaky Ground Wealth Management Three Warning Signs from Bond Markets Wealth Management DIY Investors: Why Choose a Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor Discover More Insights to help you go further.

Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Wealth Management Portfolio Insights Glossary

Equity risk premium is the excess return that an individual stock or the overall stock market provides over a risk-free rate. The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time.

Term premium is the excess yield that investors require to commit to holding a long-term bond instead of a series of shorter-term bonds.

Index Definitions

For index, indicator and survey definitions referenced in this report please visit the following:

https://www.morganstanley.com/wealth-investmentsolutions/wmir-definitions

Risk Considerations

Important note regarding economic sanctions. This report may reference jurisdiction(s) or person(s) that are the subject of sanctions administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the United Kingdom, the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies.  Any references in this report to jurisdictions, persons (individuals or entities), debt or equity instruments, or projects that may be covered by such sanctions are strictly incidental to general coverage of the relevant economic sector as germane to its overall financial outlook, and should not be read as recommending or advising as to any investment activities in relation to such jurisdictions, persons, instruments, or projects. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.

Equity securities may fluctuate in response to news on companies, industries, market conditions and general economic environment.

Bonds are subject to interest rate risk. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall; generally the longer a bond's maturity, the more sensitive it is to this risk. Bonds may also be subject to call risk, which is the risk that the issuer will redeem the debt at its option, fully or partially, before the scheduled maturity date. The market value of debt instruments may fluctuate, and proceeds from sales prior to maturity may be more or less than the amount originally invested or the maturity value due to changes in market conditions or changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Bonds are subject to the credit risk of the issuer. This is the risk that the issuer might be unable to make interest and/or principal payments on a timely basis. Bonds are also subject to reinvestment risk, which is the risk that principal and/or interest payments from a given investment may be reinvested at a lower interest rate.

Bonds rated below investment grade may have speculative characteristics and present significant risks beyond those of other securities, including greater credit risk and price volatility in the secondary market.  Investors should be careful to consider these risks alongside their individual circumstances, objectives and risk tolerance before investing in high-yield bonds.  High yield bonds should comprise only a limited portion of a balanced portfolio.

Treasury Inflation Protection Securities’ (TIPS) coupon payments and underlying principal are automatically increased to compensate for inflation by tracking the consumer price index (CPI). While the real rate of return is guaranteed, TIPS tend to offer a low return. Because the return of TIPS is linked to inflation, TIPS may significantly underperform versus conventional U.S. Treasuries in times of low inflation.

Interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax; however, some bonds may be subject to the alternative minimum tax (AMT). Also, municipal bonds acquired in the secondary market at a discount may be subject to the market discount tax provisions, and therefore could give rise to taxable income.  Typically, state tax-exemption applies if securities are issued within one’s state of residence and, if applicable, local tax-exemption applies if securities are issued within one’s city of residence. The tax-exempt status of municipal securities may be changed by legislative process, which could affect their value and marketability.

Yields are subject to change with economic conditions. Yield is only one factor that should be considered when making an investment decision. 

Investing in foreign markets entails greater risks than those normally associated with domestic markets, such as political, currency, economic and market risks. These risks are magnified in countries with emerging markets and frontier markets, since these countries may have relatively unstable governments and less established markets and economies.

Investing in currency involves additional special risks such as credit, interest rate fluctuations, derivative investment risk, and domestic and foreign inflation rates, which can be volatile and may be less liquid than other securities and more sensitive to the effect of varied economic conditions. In addition, international investing entails greater risk, as well as greater potential rewards compared to U.S. investing. These risks include political and economic uncertainties of foreign countries as well as the risk of currency fluctuations. These risks are magnified in countries with emerging markets, since these countries may have relatively unstable governments and less established markets and economies.

Investing in commodities entails significant risks. Commodity prices may be affected by a variety of factors at any time, including but not limited to, (i) changes in supply and demand relationships, (ii) governmental programs and policies, (iii) national and international political and economic events, war and terrorist events, (iv) changes in interest and exchange rates, (v) trading activities in commodities and related contracts, (vi) pestilence, technological change and weather, and (vii) the price volatility of a commodity. In addition, the commodities markets are subject to temporary distortions or other disruptions due to various factors, including lack of liquidity, participation of speculators and government intervention.

Hedge funds may involve a high degree of risk, often engage in leveraging and other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss, can be highly illiquid, are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors, may involve complex tax structures and delays in distributing important tax information, are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds, often charge high fees which may offset any trading profits, and in many cases the underlying investments are not transparent and are known only to the investment manager.

Asset allocation and diversification do not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining financial markets.

Because of their narrow focus, sector investments tend to be more volatile than investments that diversify across many sectors and companies. Risks applicable to companies in the energy and natural resources sectors include commodity pricing risk, supply and demand risk, depletion risk and exploration risk.

Virtual Currency Products (Cryptocurrencies)

Buying, selling, and transacting in Bitcoin, Ethereum or other digital assets (“Digital Assets”), and related funds and products, is highly speculative and may result in a loss of the entire investment. Risks and considerations include but are not limited to:

Digital Assets have only been in existence for a short period of time and historical trading prices for Digital Assets have been highly volatile. The price of Digital Assets could decline rapidly, and investors could lose their entire investment.

Although any Digital Asset product and its service providers have in place significant safeguards against loss, theft, destruction and inaccessibility, there is nonetheless a risk that some or all of a product’s Digital Asset could be permanently lost, stolen, destroyed or inaccessible by virtue of, among other things, the loss or theft of the “private keys” necessary to access a product’s Digital Asset.

Digital Assets may not have an established track record of credibility and trust. Further, any performance data relating to Digital Asset products may not be verifiable as pricing models are not uniform.

Environmental, Social and Governance (“ESG”) investments in a portfolio may experience performance that is lower or higher than a portfolio not employing such practices. Portfolios with ESG restrictions and strategies as well as ESG investments may not be able to take advantage of the same opportunities or market trends as portfolios where ESG criteria is not applied. There are inconsistent ESG definitions and criteria within the industry, as well as multiple ESG ratings providers that provide ESG ratings of the same subject companies and/or securities that vary among the providers. Certain issuers of investments may have differing and inconsistent views concerning ESG criteria where the ESG claims made in offering documents or other literature may overstate ESG impact. ESG designations are as of the date of this material, and no assurance is provided that the underlying assets have maintained or will maintain and such designation or any stated ESG compliance. As a result, it is difficult to compare ESG investment products or to evaluate an ESG investment product in comparison to one that does not focus on ESG. Investors should also independently consider whether the ESG investment product meets their own ESG objectives or criteria. There is no assurance that an ESG investing strategy or techniques employed will be successful. Past performance is not a guarantee or a dependable measure of future results.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is subject to limitations, and you should be aware that any output from an AI-supported tool or service made available by the Firm for your use is subject to such limitations, including but not limited to inaccuracy, incompleteness, or embedded bias.  You should always verify the results of any AI-generated output.

Rebalancing does not protect against a loss in declining financial markets.  There may be a potential tax implication with a rebalancing strategy.  Investors should consult with their tax advisor before implementing such a strategy.

The indices are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index.  They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. The indices are not subject to expenses or fees and are often comprised of securities and other investment instruments the liquidity of which is not restricted. A particular investment product may consist of securities significantly different than those in any index referred to herein. Comparing an investment to a particular index may be of limited use.

The indices selected by Morgan Stanley Wealth Management to measure performance are representative of broad asset classes.  Morgan Stanley Wealth Management retains the right to change representative indices at any time.

Disclosures

Morgan Stanley Wealth Management is the trade name of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC, a registered broker-dealer in the United States. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC, its affiliates and Morgan Stanley Financial Advisors do not provide legal or tax advice.  Each client should always consult his/her personal tax and/or legal advisor for information concerning his/her individual situation and to learn about any potential tax or other implications that may result from acting on a particular recommendation.

This material, or any portion thereof, may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC.

© 2025 Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC. Member SIPC.

CRC#4606769  (06/2025)

View Disclosures Close Disclosures Disclosures Investor Relations Corporate Governance Newsroom Careers Contact Us Global Offices Equal Employment Opportunity Cybersecurity Terms of Use Privacy & Cookies Your Privacy Choices

© 2026 Morgan Stanley. All rights reserved.